The two biggest reservoirs in the country are emptier than they’ve been since Glen Canyon Dam started filling in 1963 — and for the first time, the federal government wrote the Colorado River’s long-term operating rules without a deal among the seven states.
On July 31, the Bureau of Reclamation released the final environmental impact statement for how Lake Powell and Lake Mead will likely operate for the next decade, replacing the 2007 guidelines that expire this year. The river’s rules have always been built on agreements the seven basin states — Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and California — cut among themselves. This time, after three years of negotiations went nowhere, the feds wrote the plan for them. A final record of decision is expected this fall, and Interior says a state consensus deal could still be folded in if one materializes.
If you hunt or fish anywhere in the West, this story is bigger than city water bills. The same drought draining Powell and Mead is draining the reservoirs, rivers, and springs our fish and wildlife depend on.
How Bad Is It?
Bad. Lake Powell is sitting around 23% of capacity and Lake Mead around 27%. Reclamation’s own numbers tell the story: the river’s inflow averaged about 12.9 million acre-feet a year from 2000 to 2024, but as of July, 2026’s inflow to Lake Powell is projected at just 3.5 million acre-feet. That’s not a bad year — that’s a collapse.
The root problem goes back to 1922, when the Colorado River Compact divided up the water based on stream measurements taken during an unusually wet stretch. The legal framework promises more water than the river actually carries, and 40 million people, 30 tribes, and 5.5 million acres of farmland are all holding claims on it.
What the New Plan Does
The new framework runs through 2036 and gets adjusted every two years as conditions change. The headline: the cuts fall on the lower basin states — Arizona, Nevada, and California — which used 49% of the river’s water over the last five years, compared to 29% for the four upper basin states. For 2027 and 2028, the plan starts with the reductions the lower basin proposed for itself; after that, shortages can reach 3 million acre-feet a year if the drought keeps grinding.
Arizona officials are calling the plan devastating, with state estimates of cuts reaching as high as 77% in worst-case scenarios. The upper basin governors — including Colorado’s — say they’re “encouraged” that the new rules will better reflect the water that actually exists.
Why Hunters and Anglers Should Care
Here’s the part the water lawyers won’t tell you: the entire legal framework divides the river based on human demand. Fish, waterfowl, and wildlife don’t hold water rights.
Flaming Gorge is the canary. Reclamation is sending a million acre-feet downstream from the Wyoming–Utah border to keep Lake Powell’s dam generating power — a drawdown of roughly 35 feet through next April, dropping the reservoir from about 82% full to under 60%. Flaming Gorge is one of the premier trophy lake trout and kokanee fisheries in the West, and shrinking that cold, deep water concentrates the fish, threatens kokanee spawning, and has already exposed boat ramps and hammered the local guide economy.
Beyond the reservoirs, sustained drought means springs drying up in desert sheep and mule deer country, waterfowl skipping breeding cycles, and big game crowding what water remains — right where hunting pressure and predators find them. We dug into exactly this on the Hunt Podcast in our episode Water is Life — if this post hits a nerve, that’s the full conversation. More episodes at the Hunt Podcast page.
The Takeaway
The new plan is a step toward honest math on the Colorado, but nobody in the room is negotiating for the elk, the kokanee, or the ducks. That’s our job. Pay attention to your state’s wildlife commission meetings when reservoir and instream-flow decisions come up, because the next decade of western hunting and fishing will be shaped by water.
And if the drought has taught us anything, it’s don’t put off the hunts you’ve been dreaming about. Water-rich, game-rich country still exists — North Park Colorado elk sits on 65,000 private acres of some of the best-watered elk ground in the state, and GMU 55 in the Taylor Park high country hunts the headwaters country itself. Start with our complete guide to Colorado elk hunting, browse every hunt we offer, or just ask us anything — real hunters answer.
Hunting is not a hobby. It’s an obsession.
